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Recently, the Nature subsidiary magazine Nature Review Drug Discovery and the biomedical industry media Evaluate Vantage have both published articles on the analysis and prediction of the global drug sales of Top10 in 2022.

Two analysis article gives the same forecast, in the list, there are two product forecast sales will exceed $20 billion, including the highest sales of products as high as $29 billion (about RMB 184.4 billion), five additional product sales forecast over ten billion, Bristol-myers Squibb or become the biggest winner, it involves three drugs.

a bestseller 1

1. Name: Comirnaty

Drug type: vaccine

Company: Pfizer / BioNTech

2022 Expected sales: $29 billion

As the first mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to be approved by regulators, Comirnaty has become the backbone of Pfizer’s rapid growth. According to Pfizer’s 2021Q3 results, Comirnaty achieved revenue of $12.977 billion in this single quarter alone, and the cumulative sales revenue in its first three quarters reached $24.277 billion.

The rapid market volume of Comirnaty is due to the continuous expansion of the vaccinated people, to this day, Comirnaty has been used by the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the prevention of COVID in adults aged 16 and older, people aged 12-15, and children aged 5-11, at the same time, The vaccine was also awarded to the EUA, As a single-dose reinforcing needle, It was used in people aged 65 years and older, people at high risk of severe COVID-19 aged 18 – 64 years, people frequently exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in institutions or occupation aged 18 – 64 years, and individuals who have completed primary immunization with a different COVID-19 vaccine.Currently, Comirnaty is also in clinical trials in children in two age groups under 2 to 5 years and 6 months to under 2 years.

In May 2021, BioNtech and Fosun Pharma announced a joint venture to locally produce and commercialize mRNA COVID-19 vaccine products, with an annual capacity of 1 billion doses, but the vaccine has not been approved in China.

2. Name: Humira

Drug type: whole-human anti-tumor necrosis factor monoclonal antibody

Company: Ebervey

2022 Expected sales: $20.4 billion

Humira (trade name: beauty) is the world’s first approved whole human anti-tumor necrosis factor monoclonal antibody, in December 2002 by the FDA for the treatment of moderate and severe rheumatoid arthritis, in September 2003 approved by European EMA, has been approved in the world including rheumatoid arthritis, mandatory spondylitis, psoriasis, gangrene sepsis, more than 15 indications.

Humira is known as the “drug king”, in more than 96 countries or regions, ranked the world’s best-selling drug list, since the listing, its cumulative sales of more than $170 billion, the first three quarters of 2021 revenue of $15.36 billion, and with the new coronavirus continues, it fell from the popular Top1 champion.

Meanwhile, a more serious problem facing Humira is the close expiration of the patents, which has been struggling to defend its patents based on the huge annual revenue Humira generates for Albervey.Since 2017 and Angen signed the first Humira biological similar drug settlement agreement, the company subsequently signed eight similar agreements, including with bringer, Pfizer, lane, sanderz, but its patents in the US market also stopped in 2023, is expected to have at least nine biological similar drugs into, divide the market share of Humira.

3. Name: Spikevax

Drug type: vaccine

Company: Moderna

2022 Expected sales: $19.5 billion

Also as an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax also ranks at the top of the list, developed by Moderna, has been approved by the European Medicines Administration (EMA) and Health Canada, and is expected to be fully approved by the US FDA by April 2022.

4. Name: Keytruda

Drug type: PD-1 mAb

Company: Mo Sha Dong

2022 Expected sales: $19.5 billion

Keytruda has been expected to surpass the drug maker, with $14.38 billion in 2021, the world’s best-selling TOP2 in 2020, and $12.578 billion in the first three quarters of 2021.

In the past few years, Keytruda almost every year, currently approved in the global about more than 30 indications, including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, small cell lung cancer, head and neck cancer, Hodgkin’s lymphoma, large B cell lymphoma, bladder cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, cervical cancer, Merkel cell cancer, kidney cancer, endometrial cancer, etc., at the same time, Keytruda is in more than 400 clinical research projects, involving more than 30 types, in the future, the market potential will further expand.

5. Name: Eliquis

Drug type: small-molecule drugs

Company: Bristol-Myers Squibb / Pfizer

2022 Expected sales: $11.9 billion

Eliquis is a coagulation factor inhibitor developed by BMS and Pfizer, originally approved in the EU in May 2011, mainly for the prevention of venous thromboembolism in hip or knee replacement patients. In 2012, Eliquis was approved to reduce the risk of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (atrial fibrillation) in patients with stroke and systemic embolism, as the world’s third new generation of oral anticoagulant.

Thanks to the huge market demand for anticoagulants and the advantages shown by Eliquis itself, which significantly reduces the risk of massive bleeding, Eliquis has become the world’s best-selling anticoagulant, with its global revenue results of $8.088 billion in the first three quarters of 2021.

6. Name: Revlimid

Drug type: small-molecule drugs

Company: Bristol-Myers Squibb

2022 Expected sales: $11.2 billion

Revlimid is also a super blockbuster drug, Bristol-myers Squibb by the end of 2019 for new base acquisition Revlimid revenue, the drug in 2020 for Bristol-myers Squibb brought $12.15 billion in revenue, become the company in the highest contribution tumor revenue drugs, as contrast, Bristol-myers Squibb another fist drug Opdivo year sales of only $6.992 billion.Revlimid’s sales results are still refreshing, with revenue of $9.486 billion in the first three quarters of 2021.

It is worth mentioning that the Revlimid core patent (Composition of Matter) has expired in 2019, and most of the other patents will expire around March 2022.Four other generic drug companies have now been allowed to sell the tumor drug, Revlimid (lenalidomide), for similar drugs after March 2022.

7. Name: Stelara

Drug type: monoclonal antibody

Company: Johnson & Johnson

2022 Expected sales: $10.1 billion

With its unusual mechanism of action and expanding approved indications, Stelara’s sales grew frequently, hitting new sales in 2020 at $7.707 billion and a compound annual growth rate of 34.7% from 2010 to 2020.Undoubtedly a mainstay in Johnson & Johnson’s entire pharmaceutical business, with $5.802 billion in the first three quarters of 2021.

However, Stelara also faces the dilemma of patent expiration.Stelara’s major US patents will expire in 2023, and the product will also face huge bioanalog challenges, according to public information.Several biogeneric companies are lining up, and South Korea’s Celltrion is currently leading the competition with a phase III product.

8. Name: Biktarvy

Drug type: compound preparation

Company: Gilead

2022 Expected sales: $9.7 billion

Biktarvy is an integrase-based chain-transfer inhibitor, It is composed of three components: bictegravir (50mg), entritabine (200mg), and propofol tenofovir (25mg), It was approved for its listing in February 2018, Applicable to use as a complete scheme, To treat children and adults infected with HIV-1 weighing at least 25 kg, In China, The Biktarvy was approved in August 2019, As a complete protocol for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in adults, Moreover, there was no current and previous evidence of viral resistance to integrase inhibitors, entritabine, or tenofovir, Biktarvy is expected to continue to dominate AIDS treatment with its daily oral triple therapy, Its sales results for the first three quarters of 2021 were $6.094 billion.

9. Name: Opdivo

Drug type: PD-1 mAb

Company: Bristol-Myers Squibb

2022 Expected sales: $8.9 billion

As the world’s first approved PD-1 inhibitor, it has been approved in more than 2014, and Opdivo has been approved to treat more than 10 cancer species in more than 60 countries and regions, covering lung, head and neck, gastric, esophageal, liver, kidney, colorectal, urothelial, melanoma, Hodgkin’s lymphoma, pleural tumors, etc.

Opdivo was once seen as Keytruda’s strongest competitor, with sales twice as high at the beginning of its PD-1 drug launch, but in recent years began to weaken as Keytruda indications grew, with global sales in the first three quarters of 2021 at $6.03 billion, less than half of Keytruda.

10. Name: Dupixent

Type of drug: fully humanized monoclonal antibody

Company: Sanofi / Regenerative Yuan

2022 Expected sales: $7.4 billion

Dupixent is a fully humanized monoclonal antibody, can inhibit the signaling of IL-4 and IL-13, approved by the FDA in the end of March 2017, has been approved for various diseases caused by type 2 inflammation: moderate to severe atopic dermatitis (6), moderate to severe asthma (12), with nasal polyps chronic sinusitis (CRSwNP, adult patients), its sales of 6.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2021 reached $6.8 billion.

Some analysts predict that Dupixent is expected to surpass Biktarvy in 2026 and become one of billions of drugs in 2026.

Post time: Feb-23-2022